Tracking the where and when of NGA

Need to know

Now that the rollout of next-generation broadband access (NGA) is getting under way, many people need to know when it will arrive, area by area. One major motivation, for regional and local government for example, is to make sure that their territory is among the first to feel the economic and social benefits of having an advanced broadband infrastructure. Other aims range from tracking potential gains in property prices to developing marketing strategies for broadband-related products.

With the latest version of its BroadBand Geography product, Point Topic is able to meet such needs. Map 1 shows what this means at the top level, with existing and scheduled NGA areas marked in pink and red against a background showing potential demand – shading from “high” in green through yellow to “low” in grey and white. Behind this map is a massive database which provides data on the present and future of NGA across the UK right down to the postcode level.

Creating the database means integrating a wide range of data sources. Simply keeping track of all the new announcements from BT and alternative network providers (altnets) is a substantial task. Deciding which ones are real, with financing approved and in place, is not trivial. Plotting the areas they will cover requires access to different geographical representations. Assessing the timing and feasibility of different projects means relating all this detail to the potential demand for broadband area by area.

Point Topic has been modelling and plotting the geography of first-generation broadband since 2005, so extending our coverage to next-generation services is a natural step. The new edition of Point Topic’s BroadBand Geography product captures the coverage and future prospects of next-generation services for the first time.

New NGA fields

The BroadBand Geography product is based on a database of the 1.75 million unit postcodes in the UK, each including an average of about 15 homes and one business. The NGA data now added at the unit postcode level includes:

• Whether the area is scheduled for NGA service (or already has it) and when

• Who is due to provide the service (for multiple services in some cases)

• An estimate of the number of NGA lines in the postcode where it is already available

• An estimate of the “broadband demand density” (BDD) in the area, as an indicator of its attractiveness for NGA service providers

This is in addition to all the data included in earlier editions of BroadBand Geography. Over 50 separate fields cover full demographics, estimates of broadband line numbers by market sector (business v consumer) and technology (DSL, LLU or cable as well as NGA), and data on other factors such as expected line lengths and DSL download speeds.

Future editions of BroadBand Geography will include estimates of likely rollout dates in areas where there is no existing commitment to providing NGA by BT or an altnet. These will be based on the relative attractiveness of different areas for NGA.

Research results

By defining and mapping the density of broadband demand across the UK, the research shows where NGA is likely to be available on a purely commercial basis, and where subsidies and other special measures will be required.

As Map1 shows, BT’s planned NGA rollout, as so far announced, falls a long way short of covering even those areas where NGA should be economically attractive even without subsidy. The contribution from altnets looks quite limited at the moment as well. Thus about 60% of the UK population have no prospect of getting NGA before 2012, and maybe for much longer.

Table 1 Population coverage of BT’s planned NGA rollout

Point Topic believes that this new digital divide will cause heated controversy as many customers discover they cannot get the new high-speed services which their neighbours enjoy. As NGA services develop – high-quality video communication, total immersion in online games, simultaneous broadband access for multiple home users – the gap will seem increasingly unacceptable.

There is already a deep political divide over whether cross-subsidies should be used to support NGA rollout in less financially attractive areas. If market forces fail to meet the need the public demand for some kind of state intervention, on the lines suggested in Lord Carter’s Digital Britain report, could become very strong.

What the maps show

Map 1 above shows the areas where NGA provision is already planned (BT in red, altnets in pink) overlaid on the density of demand for broadband services. 

BT has announced it will be rolling out NGA in some 500 of its telephone exchanges between 2009 and end-2012. Map 2 shows the areas covered by these exchanges, with the colours indicating which phase of the rollout they are planned for.

A number of alternative network operators (altnets), such as Digital Region in South Yorkshire and H2O, are already providing or building NGA services and Map 3 shows what areas they are planning to cover. One or two cover large areas, particularly Digital Region. Others such as Velocity1, putting fibre into new build in Wembley, or the West Whitlawburn Housing Co-operative in Glasgow are very focused.

All the altnets shown here already have finance approved for their projects and most are already serving some customers. But the eventual coverage and service levels of some, such as the notspot-filling projects in Kent, are still only vaguely defined.

Map 4 on the other hand shows the pattern of potential demand for NGA services, expressed in terms of the “density of broadband demand” - defined as the potential demand for broadband lines in an area divided by the size of the area in square kilometres. It is the most important single indicator of how attractive an area is for rolling out NGA in terms of the potential financial return.

The five bands shown in Map 4 range from dark green through to white. The density of demand ranges from over 500 lines per square kilometre in the green areas to under 100 in the white ones. In the green areas, NGA should be economically viable without subsidy. In the yellow and grey areas it should be viable with a moderate level of subsidy as proposed in Lord Carter’s Digital Britain report. The white areas will need a mix of subsidy, creative ideas and local initiative to attract NGA services within the next five years if not longer.

When these three maps are brought together, as Map 1, it shows how the plans to provide NGA relate to the potential demand. Clearly the planned coverage falls a long way short of demand for the moment.

Cable broadband coverage is not included in these maps. It is almost all confined to the green areas of the density of demand map. By offering a 50Mbps downstream service in these areas Virgin Media provides a competitive alternative to NGA.