Broadband and Brexit – plenty of uncertainty to go round

Fast or slow?

Data for broadband penetration at end 2015 by UK local authority along with referendum results.

A quick note in the days post referendum, there will be more analysis to come once we start getting more reactions back from the industry.

Below is a spreadsheet of the referendum data by local authority and the related broadband penetration data.  It’s a bit rough and ready, we haven’t collated Northern Ireland for example, but is of use.

EU-referendum-result-data LA with bb pen at end 2015

A quick look at some correlations tends to support all the other reactions.  Often deprived areas and slow broadband are associated with a leave vote but higher turnout.

Remain % and bb penetration (correlation)
voted remain with any bb penetration 0.386788
voted remain with superfast (30Mbps+) 0.296909
voted remain with standard (<30Mbps) -0.15206
Turnout % and bb penetration (correlation)
turnout with any bb penetration -0.08492
turnout with superfast (30Mbps+) -0.40348
turnout with standard (<30Mbps) 0.625033

 

We think the most striking impacts will come from 2020 on.  Uncertainty doesn’t help investment and we’re likely to see the less commercial areas if the UK at risk of more digital divide.

However broadband is an extremely useful policy lever, new RoI research yielding strong positives, and we could well see regulatory or even budgetary reviews, at least if discussions will be evidence based.