Global fixed broadband subscriber forecasts for up to 2022
1bn fixed broadband lines predicted by the end of 2020
Point Topic have updated their five-year global broadband subscriber number forecasts. We look at how the market is expected to evolve in the next six years.Global broadband subscriber growth in the next 6 years
Point Topic’s latest fixed broadband subscriber forecasts provide current and historical data as well as forecasts of broadband take-up in the markets that we track as part of our Global Broadband Statistics service, with a few small exceptions. This means we now report on 114 countries around the world and model their expected take-up for residential and business fixed broadband connections to the end of 2022.
Point Topic predicts that at the end of 2022 there will be 1.07 billion fixed broadband subscribers around the world. We believe that the 1 billion mark will be exceeded by the end of 2020. Overall we have uplifted our global forecast to end 2021 by 1.52%.
Figure 1: World broadband subscriber forecasts to 2022. Source – Point Topic.
Broadband subscriber growth by region
Differences in broadband subscriber growth across the world are driven by how developed the market is within particular countries and regions. While the South and East Asia already has twice the number of broadband connections when compared to the next largest broadband region (Western Europe), the growth potential in this region remains huge and numbers are expected to continue growing at a healthy rate through to 2022 and beyond. Other regions are expected to report slow but steady growth until at least 2022.
Figure 2: World broadband forecasts by region. Source – Point Topic
Individual forecasts for each country at quarterly intervals for every quarter up to the end of 2022 are available in Point Topic’s Global Broadband Statistics service.
How do we forecast broadband subscriber numbers?
Point Topic uses the Gompertz Curve to forecast global broadband growth. The Gompertz Curve has been used for modelling consumer behaviour in a number of instances for at least the last 50 years. It has proven to be an accurate and powerful tool for predicting the diffusion of technology products through a consumer universe.
Broadband forecasts are generated for the 114 countries with the highest broadband subscriber numbers, as well as a general curve addressing growth in the rest of the world.
Point Topic’s forecasts use the following inputs:
- Broadband subscribers – every quarter, Point Topic updates its database of broadband subscriber numbers across the world. The full database is available to our Global Broadband Statistics subscribers. This historical data is used as the basis for our forecasts.
- Population forecasts – we use population forecasts published by the UN.
- Household forecasts – we use estimates of the number of people per household to forecast growth in households
We then calculate the following variables for each of the markets covered:
- Coverage – coverage defines the total addressable audience and is therefore set as the upper limit for broadband subscriptions. We forecast coverage growth over time.
- Inception date – how many quarters since the technology was adopted in that market? This will affect the growth rate.
- Growth factor – the speed of adoption (diffusion) of fixed broadband in a particular market. This is an indicator of how accessible, both economically (consumers can afford it) and in terms of availability (the service is present for a consumer in a particular place), fixed broadband is. This will vary from market to market.
Using these inputs we generate a forecast of broadband subscriptions in each of the 114 markets covered and for the rest of the world. These forecasts are inspected manually and adjusted to account for local market knowledge.
Find out more
Individual forecasts for 114 countries at quarterly intervals up to December 2021 are published in Point Topic’s Global Broadband Statistics service. Please telephone +44 (0)20 3301 3303 or e-mail simona@point-topic.com for more details.