Point Topic have produced global fixed broadband take-up forecasts by technology for the first time. The latest research provides a dataset which features current and historical data as well as forecasts of broadband take-up by DSL, FTTH/P/B, FTTC/VDSL, Cable and other technologies (mostly WiMAX, other wireless and satellite) for the period between Q3 2018 and Q4 2025.
The forecasts, which include data for the top 30 fixed broadband markets and the Rest of the World (ROW), are part of our Global Broadband Statistics service. They are based on Point Topic’s extensive historical data on fixed broadband take up, the trends in subscriber churn for various broadband technologies, the size of the addressable market at country level, and current and planned network upgrades.
Our forecasts predict that at the end of 2025 there will be 1.2 billion fixed broadband subscribers worldwide. (As we reported earlier, the 1 billion mark was exceeded in Q3 2018). Some 89 per cent of the fixed broadband subscribers will be in the top 30 broadband markets, ranked as such by the subscriber numbers recorded in Q2 2018.
We predict that by end-2025 some variant of fibre (FTTH/P/B) will be used by 59% of fixed broadband subscribers globally, compared to 48% currently. In the same period, the share of DSL (ADSL) based subscriptions will drop from 19% to 9%, while the shares of cable and FTTC/VDSL based connections will remain largely stable at 19% and 12% respectively, despite the increase in their actual take-up figures.
As confirmed by Point Topic’s actual broadband subscriber figures, updated quarterly within our Global Broadband Statistics dataset, legacy copper networks have been losing customers to more advanced technologies for years. It looks like direct fibre networks will attract the majority of new customers, with DSL figures forecast to drop to hundreds or tens of thousands in most technologically advanced markets.
However, one cannot completely discount FTTC/VDSL and cable platforms, preferred by some operators, and especially their more advanced versions such as G.fast and Docsis 3.1 which are capable of gigabit speeds. We have seen their deployment gather pace in certain regions of the world (see our latest map).
Having said that, the launch of superfast 5G services, which are already being trialled in several countries, will impact fixed broadband take-up around the globe. In our country by country forecast, we are predicting some markets and fixed technologies losing broadband subscribers by 2025. We expect to be able to make a more informed judgement on the full extent of the 5G impact in the next 12-18 months, when these services are launched commercially. We will be updating our forecasts to reflect that impact as well as to add more countries to the current 30 markets.
In the meantime, watch this space for more analysis discussing the current forecasts at the country level early next year. Among other things, we will be looking at where ‘the next billion’ of fixed broadband subscribers will be coming from.
The broadband take-up forecasts are part of Point Topic’s Global Broadband Statistics service that allows customers to analyse the datasets covering fixed broadband subscribers in more than 120 countries at country, operator and technology level. This service is also available as part of our Double Play and Triple Play packages. Please telephone +44 (0)20 3301 3303 or e-mail [email protected] for more details.