Global fixed broadband forecasts: 1.6 billion subscribers by 2030

October 2021

We have updated our forecasts of fixed broadband take-up for 114 markets to the end of 2030. The forecasts are based on our quarterly broadband take-up data up to Q1 2021 and include both residential and business connections.

We have updated our forecasts of fixed broadband take-up for 114 markets to the end of 2030. The forecasts are based on our quarterly broadband take-up data up to Q1 2021 and include both residential and business connections.

We forecast that by the end of 2030 there will be more than 1.55 billion fixed broadband subscribers across the globe.

World Broadband Subscribers to 2030

Figure 1. Forecast of total global fixed broadband subscriber lines to 2030. Source: Point Topic.

 

 

The most notable growth in fixed broadband subscribers will come from the emerging and youthful markets (Table 1), where broadband demand is still increasing due to large and fast growing populations and economies[1].

 

Market typePredicted growth, 2021-2030
Emerging Countries51.3%
Youthful Countries35.7%
Mature Countries8.6%
Table 1 . Predicted growth in  fixed broadband subscribers by market type. Source: Point Topic.

 

 

Forecast of global fixed broadband subscriber lines to 2030

Figure 2. Forecast of global fixed broadband subscriber lines to 2030 by market type. Source: Point Topic.

 

The most developed economies of Western Europe and North America, where broadband markets are reaching saturation, will see the slowest growth. On the other hand, fixed broadband take-up in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and South & East Asia will grow at significant rates.

 

RegionPredicted growth, 2021-2030
Middle East and Africa49.4%
Latin America37.1%
South and East Asia31.3%
Eastern Europe18.5%
Asia-Pacific15.3%
North America11.0%
Western Europe6.6%
Table 2. Predicted growth in fixed broadband subscribers by region. Source: Point Topic.

 

 

World Broadband Subscriber Forecasts to 2030

Figure 3. Forecast of global fixed broadband subscriber lines to 2030 by region. Source: Point Topic.

 

Compared to the previous forecast, our prediction for fixed broadband figures by end-2030 is 7.5% higher. This reflects higher than expected growth in broadband take-up and addressable audiences in a number of countries. The predicted growth in such large markets as Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt and Mexico, among others will have a significant effect on the global forecast for this decade. These are emerging or youthful countries, where there is much scope for expanding fixed broadband coverage and take-up. At the same time, we predict only 26% growth between 2021 and 2030 in China, given that the country’s fixed broadband market is highly saturated already – it has reached the half billion subscriber milestone in Q2 2021. Moreover, 5G subscribers there are also approaching 0.5 billion.  In the mature market of the US,  we forecast a 12% growth between now and 2030.

 

Market typeRegionCountryPredicted growth, 2021-2030
Emerging CountriesSouth and East AsiaIndonesia167.8%
Emerging CountriesLatin AmericaBolivia134.1%
Emerging CountriesAsia-PacificPhilippines116.8%
Emerging CountriesLatin AmericaParaguay99.2%
Emerging CountriesMiddle East and AfricaEgypt73.5%
Emerging CountriesMiddle East and AfricaMorocco62.6%
Emerging CountriesMiddle East and AfricaTunisia53.4%
Youthful CountriesLatin AmericaMexico52.6%
Table 3. Examples of fast growing broadband markets. Source: Point Topic.

 

Growth Forecast by Country

Figure 4. Growth forecast by country (% growth 2021-2030). Source: Point Topic.

 

At the same time, cost is still a significant barrier to fixed broadband adoption. Countries with high growth potential will have to do more to make broadband affordable to larger audiences (Table 4).

 

CountryMedian tariff rankEntry level tariff rankAverage tariff rank
Philippines757776
Bolivia716074
Indonesia66467
Morocco613057
Tunisia585840
Egypt463151
Table 4. Ranking of selected countries by the median, entry level and average residential broadband tariff, Q2 2021. Source: Point Topic (see complete table)

 

We have yet to see the full impact of 5G on fixed broadband.  We will be exploring the fixed/mobile substitution rates in the future.


The complete dataset of the fixed broadband take-up forecast to 2030 by country and region is available to subscribers of our Global Broadband Statistics service.

[1] We have divided countries into “Emerging”, “Youthful” and “Mature” markets, depending on the amount of time since the technology was introduced.