We have updated our forecasts of fixed broadband take-up for 114 markets to the end of 2030. The forecasts are based on our quarterly broadband take-up data up to Q4 2019 and include both residential and business connections.
We predict that by the end of 2030 there will be more than 1.4 billion fixed broadband subscribers in the world.
Figure 1. Forecast of total global fixed broadband subscriber lines to 2030. Source: Point Topic.
The most dramatic growth in broadband subscribers will primarily come in the emerging and youthful markets and regions, where broadband growth potential is still high due to large and fast growing populations and economies.
 We have divided countries into “Emerging”, “Youthful” and “Mature” markets, depending on the amount of time since the technology was introduced.
Figure 2. Forecast of global fixed broadband subscriber lines to 2030 by market type. Source: Point Topic.
Table 1 . Predicted growth in fixed broadband subscribers by market type. Source: Point Topic.
The most developed regions of Western Europe and North America, with broadband markets reaching saturation, will see the slowest growth.
Table 2. Predicted growth in fixed broadband subscribers by region. Source: Point Topic.
Figure 3. Forecast of global fixed broadband subscriber lines to 2030 by region. Source: Point Topic.
Compared to our previous forecast, our prediction for fixed broadband figures by end-2022 is 17% higher. This reflects higher than expected growth in broadband take-up and addressable audiences in a number of countries.
The significant growth figures in such large markets as Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand, Argentina, and Vietnam among others had their effect on the global forecast for the next decade. These are emerging or youthful countries, where there is much scope for expanding fixed broadband coverage and take-up.
Meanwhile, we predict only 18% growth in China between 2019 and 2030, given that the country is fast approaching fixed broadband market saturation.
Table 3. Examples of fast growing broadband markets. Source: Point Topic.
At the same time, cost remains the highest barrier to adoption. Countries like Indonesia, Bolivia, South Africa, and Argentina for example will have to do more to make broadband affordable to larger audiences.
Table 4. Ranking of selected countries by the median, entry level and average residential broadband tariff. Source: Point Topic (see complete table)
Of course, we have yet to see the full impact of 5G on fixed broadband. We will be examining the fixed/mobile substitution rates in the future.
The data used in this report is taken from Point Topic’s Global Broadband Statistics service that allows customers to analyse the datasets covering fixed broadband subscribers in more than 120 countries at country, operator and technology level. The data is also available as part of our Double Play and Triple Play service. Please e-mail email@example.com or call +44 (0)20 3301 3303 for more details.