Point Topic predicts the number of worldwide fixed broadband lines will break through the 1bn barrier to reach 1.02bn by the end of 2021. The forecast is based on individual growth calculations for 114 countries along with combined ‘rest of the world’ growth calculations for the remaining countries. Our projections are made at quarterly intervals up to December 2021. More details on the forecasting methodology are included later in this report.
Figure 1: World broadband subscriber forecasts to 2021. Source – Point Topic.
Differences in broadband subscriber growth across the world are driven by how developed the market is within particular countries and regions. While the South and East Asia region already has twice the number of broadband connections when compared to the next biggest broadband region (Western Europe), the growth potential remains huge and numbers are expected to continue growing at a healthy rate through to 2021 and beyond. All regions apart from South and East Asia are expected to report slow but steady growth until at least 2021. Individual forecasts for each country at quarterly intervals for every quarter up to the end of 2021 are available in Point Topic’s Global Broadband Statistics service.
Point Topic uses the Gompertz Curve to forecast global broadband growth. The Gompertz Curve has been used for modelling consumer behaviour in a number of instances for at least the last 50 years. It has proven to be an accurate and powerful tool for predicting the diffusion of technology products through a consumer universe.
Broadband forecasts are generated for the 114 countries with the highest broadband subscriber numbers, as well as a general curve addressing growth in the rest of the world.
Point Topic’s forecasts use the following inputs:
We then calculate the following variables for each of the markets covered:
Using these inputs we generate a forecast of broadband subscriptions in each of the 114 markets covered and for the rest of the world. These forecasts are inspected manually and adjusted to account for local market knowledge.
Individual forecasts for 114 countries at quarterly intervals up to December 2021 are published in Point Topic’s Global Broadband Statistics service. Please telephone +44 (0)20 3301 3303 or e-mail [email protected] for more details.