Fibre (FTTP/H/B) rollout continues across Europe, with an increasing percentage of households being able to access fibre broadband[1]. After deploying fibre networks, countries and operators are facing a rather more difficult challenge of signing up consumers to fibre broadband services.
This is our update on fibre adoption rates across European countries and how they changed between 2013 and 2023. Also, we have developed a model which can be used to calculate current and potential FTTP broadband subscription revenues that can be generated in a country – the so called revenue headroom – depending on fibre adoption rates. In this instance we are focusing on residential broadband services. The model can be extended to the global scale as well as adapted to other technologies and services (for example, business broadband, pay TV) and different time scales.
This research combines data from two of our datasets - Global Broadband Statistics and European Broadband Operators and Tariffs - as well as other inputs such as the Broadband Coverage in Europe studies which Point Topic co-authored for the European Commission. All the data quoted in this analysis refers to mid-year (for example, mid-2020, mid-2023 etc).
Fibre adoption rates: a snapshot and trends across Europe
By fibre adoption rate we mean the ratio of the number of fibre broadband subscribers and the number of homes covered by fibre networks in a country.
As of mid-2023, fibre adoption rate ranged from 16.3% in Austria and Greece to 94.9% in Iceland, with the average among the 30 European countries standing at 57.2%, up from 54.4% we recorded in mid-2022.
At the first glance, the map below suggests fibre adoption rates at the higher end of the scale where FTTP deployment started earlier compared to other markets. Primarily these are the countries that were pioneers in fibre deployment, encouraged investment in the sector and competition (Scandinavia, France, Portugal, Spain). Countries where the incumbent operators adopted full fibre as their preferred technology (the Baltics, Romania, Slovakia) have also done well in terms of FTTP adoption by consumers.
On the other hand, the incumbents in Austria, Greece, Germany, Belgium, UK, and Italy, among others, favoured VDSL for a significant period of time, before investing in full fibre. In these countries, FTTP availability was provided mainly by smaller operators and only started picking up in the last few years. This is reflected in their ranking by FTTP coverage (Figure 1). Partly as a result of this, fibre adoption rates in these markets are still at the lower end of the spectrum. Having said that, Switzerland and Czech Republic are bucking the trend, where FTTP coverage is also at the lower end of the spectrum but take up rates are higher than in the above-mentioned countries.
The length of time the fibre networks have been in operation is not the only factor influencing fibre adoption rates. We will discuss other factors later in this piece.
Between 2022 and 2023, we saw the largest positive change in the FTTP adoption rate in Estonia, where it went up from 67.7% to 79.9% (+12.2%) (Figure 2). While the number of FTTP homes passed increased by only 1%, the country saw a 19.1% increase in fibre broadband subscribers. The incumbent operator Telia Eesti, the largest FTTP provider in the country, has seen healthy growth in customer base, and smaller altnets have also been increasing their fibre broadband customer numbers.
At the other end of the spectrum, fibre adoption rate fell from 83.3% to 74% in Finland (-9.2%). In this country, the number of FTTP homes passed grew by 21.8% while the number of fibre broadband subscribers increased by only 8.3%. Similarly, in Sweden fibre adoption rate dropped by 8.2% to 85.4% (here FTTP homes passed went up by 12.7% but subscribers increased by only 2.8%). Nevertheless, fibre adoption in Finland and Sweden is still much higher than the EU average.
It is not uncommon to see negative growth in fibre adoption where fibre networks are built faster than new customers are signed up, especially in mature broadband markets where most households are either already on fibre or have other broadband services meeting their needs. Another example of a drop in fibre adoption rate is Germany (-6.7%), where Telekom and other operators are pushing ahead with FTTP deployments but VDSL and cable networks have been around for a long time and many customers still choose to stay on these platforms.
Between mid-2022 and mid-2023 we recorded the highest growth in FTTP subscribers in Greece (+101%), where this broadband technology was introduced relatively recently, so the growth came from a very low base. In the same period, the country saw a 35.1% increase in FTTP homes passed to more than 1.6m. Given the small subscriber base though the country was at the bottom of fibre adoption table along with Austria.
Belgium and Austria were the other two countries with high growth in FTTP subscribers – their numbers almost doubled (+78.2% in Belgium and +68.8% in Austria). Like Greece, both countries were rather slow in introducing full fibre, although the rollout pace has been picking up, especially in Belgium – homes passed were up by 39.8%, resulting in a 29.7% fibre adoption rate. In Austria, FTTP homes passed went up by only 12.9%. However, given that FTTP subscribers grew at a high rate but from a small base, fibre adoption rate remained among the lowest in Europe, at 16.3%. Most of the households are still subscribing to a xDSL (VDSL or ADSL) or cable/Docsis based broadband.
Lithuania and Sweden saw the lowest growth in FTTP subscribers. In both countries, fibre adoption rates are already way above average (76.4% and 85.4% respectively).
In the rest of the report we analyse trends in FTTP adoption and coverage by various technologies in selected two European countries. We also look at the factors impacting fibre adoption and present our fibre broadband revenue model, illustrating it with specific country examples.
The complete report, the dataset and the model are available to our customers. It enables users to compare fibre adoption trends, revenue headroom and other metrics (20 in total) in all 30 countries. To learn more about becoming a customer please contact isabelle.anderson@point-topic.com
[1] For brevity, we will be using FTTP and ‘fibre’ interchangeably to denote FTTP/H/B variants.
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