We have updated our forecasts of fixed broadband take-up for 123 markets to the end of 2030. The forecasts are based on our quarterly fixed broadband subscriber data up to Q2 2024 and include both residential and business connections. (For methodology see the final section of the report).
We forecast that by the end of 2030 there will be more than 1.614 billion fixed broadband subscribers across the globe (Figure 1). This is a slight drop from 1.618 billion we predicted in our forecast published 12 months ago. Between mid-2024 and end-2030, global fixed broadband subscribers will grow by 10.2% (compared to our prediction of 14.9% a year ago). We moderated our forecast slightly due to the latest trends in broadband subscriber growth. Whether it’s challenging economic conditions, regional conflicts or network deployment challenges and competition from 5G, there is a general trend of the growth slowing down.
The highest growth in fixed broadband subscribers (29.6%) will come from the Emerging markets, where broadband services were introduced earlier than in the Youthful markets but there is still plenty of room to increase take-up (Table 1 and Figure 2) [1]. A number of countries in the Emerging category have been expanding fixed broadband infrastructure, especially focusing on fibre (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and the Philippines, to name just a few). The demand for ultrafast broadband has been increasing at healthy rates in these generally large and growing populations and economies.
Youthful countries will see the second highest growth rate at 6.5%. Here fixed broadband take-up has already grown at high speed and so they will see growth rates slow down. To date, the growth curve of Youthful markets has been the steepest, with the likes of China having invested heavily in their broadband infrastructure over the last decade[2].
Table 1 . Forecast growth in fixed broadband subscribers by market type. Source: Point Topic.
The growth in mature countries will be the slowest (5.3%) as fixed broadband penetration there is already high and the population growth is slowing down or turning negative. In fact, we forecast that the total fixed broadband subscriber figure in the Emerging markets will almost match that in Mature markets by the end of the decade.
At the regional level, the advanced, mature economies of Western Europe will see the slowest growth, at 4.2%. The rest of Europe, North America and South and East Asia will also see moderate growth in single figures. In the latter, significant growth in the likes of India, Indonesia, Thailand and Nepal, for example, will be counterbalanced by the growth slowing down to a great extent in the huge market of China, along with Hong Kong and Taiwan. On the other hand, fixed broadband take-up in the Middle East & Africa and in Latin America will grow at significant rates (36.9% and 21.5% respectively) (Table 2). In these mainly Youthful and Emerging markets the potential for growth is high.
Table 2. Forecast growth in fixed broadband subscribers by region. Source: Point Topic.
In terms of the actual figures, South and East Asia will continue to have by far the highest number of fixed broadband subscribers by the end of 2030, at 732 million. China will remain the largest market in the region, although the growth there will slow down significantly and turn negative by 2030, given the already high household penetration.
Western Europe will follow in the second place with 182 million fixed broadband subscribers forecast by 2030. Despite the highest predicted growth, Middle East and Africa will remain the second smallest fixed broadband market with 97.3 million subscribers. However, this figure is only slightly higher than that forecast for Eastern Europe (96.6 million), not least due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Compared to the previous forecast, our current forecast of global fixed broadband subscribers by end-2030 is 0.3% lower. This reflects lower than we previously expected growth in broadband take-up and addressable audiences in a number of countries. The lower forecast growth in such large markets as the Philippines (-17%), Thailand (-17%), Colombia (-12%), Kazakhstan (-11%), South Africa (-9%), and Russia (-9%), among others, has moderated our global fixed broadband subscriber forecast for this decade. (Note: these percentages are comparing our previous forecast broadband subscribers to our current forecast for these markets, not the difference between current subscriber figures versus 2030).
These developing economies with relatively low market saturation will still see growth, as they still have plenty of scope for expanding fixed broadband coverage and take-up. Markets of these types also dominate the highest growth league table (Table 3). It should be noted, however, that in some of them growth will come from a low base, so it will be less marked in terms of actual subscriber numbers.
Table 3. Fixed broadband markets with the highest forecast growth, 2024-2030. Source: Point Topic.
The slowest growth will come in a mixture of markets. The Mature markets such as Hong Kong, Finland and Germany will see a natural slowdown due to already high penetration. A number of East European countries (Emerging markets) will also see stagnating growth as they are approaching the ceiling of broadband take-up, having progressed at a fast pace. The likes of Latvia and Lithuania also have high 5G availability (Table 4). Some other countries in this league table are facing economic and geopolitical difficulties (Venezuela) which is likely to stifle broadband subscriber growth in the next five years.
In summary, the lowest forecast growth countries are a mixture of Mature, Emerging and Youthful markets with some common features – relatively high fixed broadband penetration being one of them.
Table 4. Fixed broadband markets with the lowest forecast growth, 2023-2030. Source: Point Topic.
The overall trend is that developing economies will see higher growth in fixed broadband take-up between now and the end of the decade (Figure 4).
Similarly, mainly countries from the Global South will see the largest improvements in fixed broadband penetration among population, with UAE at the top with +15.7%.
We are optimistic about Ukraine recovering from the consequences of the war, although we may need to update its outlook if things change. It is remarkable that despite the challenges they are facing, Ukraine is still prioritising broadband expansion, focusing on fibre deployment in particular. It speaks to the resilience of the human spirit and the importance of connectivity even in the most adverse circumstances.
Broadband is becoming more available: what are the implications?
The fixed broadband market continues to expand globally, although at a more moderate pace than previously anticipated. Growth is increasingly driven by emerging economies, while mature markets are experiencing slower growth or stagnation. Regional and country-specific factors play a significant role in shaping the global broadband landscape.
Increasing broadband availability has profound implications for everything from economic development to social change. It is breaking down geographical barriers and levelling the playing field when it comes to educational opportunities, business development and healthcare.
A small business owner in Indonesia, who previously relied on word of mouth and local markets to sell their products, now can reach customers across the country, and even tap into global markets. A student in a remote village in Brazil can now access online libraries, take virtual classes from top universities and connect with peers from around the world. Telemedicine is becoming increasingly viable, allowing doctors to consult patients in remote areas and provide specialised care that might have been previously unavailable.
So, broadband access is a game changer, but as with any transformative technology, there are challenges to consider as well. One of the concerns is the digital divide. Even within countries experiencing rapid broadband growth, there will be disparities between urban and rural areas, rich and poor, and different ethnic groups. Bridging the digital divide requires a multifaceted approach, which involves investing in infrastructure to reach underserved areas, making broadband affordable, and promoting digital literacy so populations can use connectivity effectively. In addition to providing access to the technology itself, it is also about ensuring that the content and services are relevant and accessible to diverse populations in local languages.
Another challenge is the potential for misuse of technology. Increased connectivity can also mean increased exposure to cybercrime, misinformation, and online harassment. So as the countries expand access, they also need to equip their populations with the skills and knowledge to navigate the online world safely and responsibly. Citizens need education on how to identify fake news and protect their privacy.
Broadband is also a platform for social change and democratic participation. It can empower individuals to raise their voices, hold their leaders accountable, and advocate for the issues they care about. It is therefore crucial to promote critical thinking skills and respect for diverse viewpoints.
Another dimension of growing broadband accessibility is geopolitical implications. We are not just seeing a technological shift, but a potential power shift as well. As broadband access explodes in emerging markets, it is reshaping global dynamics. As huge markets like India, Indonesia and Brazil develop robust digital economies, they become less reliant on traditional power centres like the United States and Europe. This newfound economic strength gives them more leverage on the world stage. They have a stronger voice in international forums and can drive the conversation on issues like climate change, trade and global security.
This changing landscape also presents some exciting opportunities for innovation. As millions of people in emerging markets come online, it creates a massive new market for digital products and services. We are seeing a surge in startups and tech companies catering to the specific needs and preferences of these populations, whether it’s new mobile payment systems, educational platforms or healthcare solutions designed for lower income communities.
By understanding both the opportunities and the potential pitfalls presented by broadband expansion, nations can work towards a future where broadband truly empowers individuals and communities around the world.
The complete dataset of the fixed broadband subscriber forecast to 2030 by country and region is available to subscribers of our Global Broadband Statistics service.
[1] We have divided countries into "Emerging", "Youthful" and "Mature" markets, depending on the length of time since the technology was introduced. The list is available in the full dataset spreadsheet.
[2] Given recent news about China possibly over-reporting their population figures, we cannot vouch for the country’s officially reported fixed broadband subscriber figures used in our forecast, especially as the official figures suggest a household penetration rate much higher than 100%.
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