Executive Summary
This report provides an updated analysis of trends in global and regional broadband subscriptions, technology adoption, and the growth rates in major markets.
In Q1 2024, global fixed broadband connections reached 1.45 billion, following a quarterly growth of 1.22%. We recorded a decline in fixed broadband subscriptions in 23 countries[1], up from 18 in Q4 2023. Some of these markets have high mobile subscriber penetration, others are experiencing high inflation and / or are already highly saturated markets, for example - Sweden, Switzerland, Monaco and the Netherlands. Yet others are at war.
Some key points:
As some economies saw signs of stabilisation, the global quarterly growth rate recovered to 1.22%. The highest growth came from the developing and least saturated markets.
The share of FTTH/B in the total fixed broadband subscriptions increased further and stood at 70.2%. Broadband connections based on other technologies saw their market shares shrink again, with an exception of satellite and fixed wireless.
Year-on-year, FTTH/B connections grew by 9.3%. FWA was another technology group that saw annual growth (+8.1%), while subscribers over other platforms declined.
Among the largest twenty markets all but one recorded fixed broadband subscriber growth in Q1 2024. The average growth in the 20 markets was 0.53%, compared to 0.41% in Q4 2023.
The highest FTTH/B broadband subscriber growth rates in Q1 2024 were in Algeria, Belgium, and Dominican Republic, all of which recorded growth in double figures.
Global and regional trends
During Q1 2024, global fixed broadband subscribers increased by 1.22%, reaching 1.45 billion. The growth rate has recovered, following the previous quarter’s lowest quarterly growth since 2019 (Figure 1 and Table 1).
Table 1. Global broadband subscribers and quarterly growth rates. Source – Point Topic.
Quarter | Subscribers | Net Adds | Growth % |
2022Q1 | 1,299,612,230 | 23,076,973 | 1.81% |
2022Q2 | 1,317,976,044 | 18,363,814 | 1.41% |
2022Q3 | 1,343,082,512 | 25,106,468 | 1.90% |
2022Q4 | 1,361,883,799 | 18,801,287 | 1.40% |
2023Q1 | 1,382,197,489 | 20,313,690 | 1.49% |
2023Q2 | 1,399,097,617 | 16,900,128 | 1.22% |
2023Q3 | 1,419,923,139 | 20,825,522 | 1.49% |
2023Q4 | 1,433,056,511 | 13,133,372 | 0.92% |
2024Q1 | 1,450,606,880 | 17,550,369 | 1.22% |
The recovery in the Chinese fixed broadband market (a 1.7% growth rate compared to 1% in Q4 2024) also led to East Asia’s share of fixed broadband subscriber net adds recovering to 63.3%, compared to 51.4% in Q4 2024. The region continued to dominate, maintaining its position as the largest fixed broadband market with a 50.2% share of global subscribers, primarily driven by China with its vast population[2] (Table 2). Apart from East Asia and America-Other, other regions saw their net adds market shares drop quarter-on-quarter. In the Americas, such sizeable markets as the Dominican Republic, Peru and Ecuador recorded healthy growth in the first quarter of 2024.
Table 2. Share of fixed broadband subscribers and trends in net adds by region. Source – Point Topic
Reporting Region | Net adds share Q4 2023 | Net adds share Q1 2024 | Q4 2023 Market Share | Q1 2024 Market Share |
Africa | 5.24% | 3.45% | 1.72% | 1.74% |
America - North | 8.55% | 5.97% | 10.47% | 10.42% |
America - Other | 10.68% | 10.91% | 8.04% | 8.08% |
Asia - East | 51.43% | 63.30% | 50.04% | 50.20% |
Asia - Other | 12.94% | 9.88% | 10.83% | 10.82% |
Europe - East | 4.14% | 2.23% | 5.07% | 5.03% |
Europe - Other | 6.86% | 4.08% | 13.07% | 12.96% |
Oceania | 0.16% | 0.18% | 0.75% | 0.75% |
On the other hand, quarterly decline in Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines is partly to blame for the largest decline in the quarterly adds share in the case of Asia-Other (from 12.9% to 9.9% q-o-q).
Next we look at fixed broadband penetration among population, comparing it to growth rates across the regions. Given its low fixed broadband penetration (4.7%), Africa continued to lead in terms of quarterly growth rate at 2.5%. The region remains a growing market with a high potential for expansion, though the dominance of mobile broadband technologies will be hard to overcome. We recorded the second highest growth rate of 1.7% for America-Other, where penetration is relatively low at 18.1%.
As in the earlier quarters, Europe, North America and Oceania recorded modest growth rates of below 1%, while enjoying relatively high population penetration, especially in the case of Europe–Other (40%) and North America (39.3%). These regions have a limited potential for expansion, with migration from copper to fibre and, to some extent, Docsis3.1 remaining the key trend. Oceania had a population penetration rate of 33.4%, pointing to a market approaching maturity, too. While growth in Eastern Europe remained low (0.5%), the region’s fixed broadband penetration rate of 25.3% leaves headroom for market expansion. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is still dampening growth, however.
As we mentioned earlier, fixed broadband growth in East Asia recovered this quarter – the subscriber figures were up by 1.5% compared to Q4 2023, despite some East Asian markets seemingly nearing saturation, with the regional penetration rate at 44.5%. (See our earlier footnote about broadband and population figures in China).
Country and technology trends
In Q1 2024, we registered the highest broadband take-up growth rates mainly in the developing countries and least mature broadband markets (Figure 4). In the case of Burkina Faso, Mali and some other countries in this category, the growth came from a very low base.
Among the largest twenty broadband markets all except Thailand saw fixed broadband subscribers grow in Q1 2024 (Table 3). In Thailand, both True and NTC saw churn this quarter, partly due to reporting adjustments and decreasing popularity of legacy technologies.
In ten of the twenty largest fixed broadband markets the growth in Q1 2024 was slower than in the previous quarter. We recorded the most significant slowdown in Egypt (-1%).
Table 3. Changes in quarterly growth in fixed broadband subscribers in the largest 20 markets. Source: Point Topic.
Country | Growth, Q1 2024 | Growth, Q4 2023 | Change in quarterly growth, % |
India | 4.05% | 3.75% | 0.30% |
Mexico | 1.93% | 1.32% | 0.62% |
Argentina | 1.88% | 1.30% | 0.58% |
Brazil | 1.73% | 1.16% | 0.58% |
China | 1.71% | 1.03% | 0.68% |
Viet Nam | 1.12% | 1.27% | -0.15% |
Egypt | 1.10% | 2.16% | -1.06% |
Germany | 0.84% | 0.95% | -0.11% |
Spain | 0.73% | 0.77% | -0.04% |
Indonesia | 0.72% | 0.64% | 0.08% |
United States | 0.71% | 0.86% | -0.15% |
Canada | 0.60% | -0.05% | 0.66% |
Russian Federation | 0.48% | 0.66% | -0.18% |
South Korea | 0.46% | 0.55% | -0.09% |
Iran | 0.36% | 0.39% | -0.03% |
Japan | 0.24% | 0.30% | -0.07% |
France | 0.18% | 0.37% | -0.19% |
Italy | 0.17% | 0.12% | 0.05% |
United Kingdom | 0.13% | 0.10% | 0.03% |
Thailand | -8.54% | -9.54% | 1.00% |
Once again, India was at the top of the largest 20 fixed broadband markets with a 4.05% growth rate. The average growth in the 20 markets was 0.53%, compared to 0.41% in Q4 2023.
Technology trends
Full fibre continues to be the dominant broadband technology, whose market share has expanded further. Between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, the share of FTTH/B connections in the total fixed broadband subscriptions went up by 0.64% and stood at 70.24%. Broadband connections based on other technologies saw their market shares shrink further. Two exceptions were satellite[3] and wireless. Satellite market share remained stable, while wireless technologies (mainly FWA) saw it go up by 0.03%.
Table 4. Changes in broadband technology market shares. Source – Point Topic.
Broadband Technology | Q4 2023 Market Share | Q1 2024 Market Share | Difference |
Cable | 14.80% | 14.60% | -0.20% |
Copper | 6.02% | 5.78% | -0.25% |
FTTH/B | 69.61% | 70.24% | 0.64% |
FTTx | 7.11% | 6.91% | -0.20% |
Satellite | 0.21% | 0.21% | 0.00% |
Wireless | 1.87% | 1.89% | 0.03% |
Others | 0.37% | 0.36% | -0.01% |
The share of FTTx (mainly VDSL) stood at 6.91%, down from 7.11%[4]. FTTx subscriber numbers still grew in 17 countries, but, with an exception of Tunisia, the growth rates were in single figures.
In the context of fibre expansion, we looked at the growth of FTTH/B in markets with at least 0.5 million fibre broadband connections (Table 5). Among the ten fastest growing markets, six were in developing economies. Algeria, Belgium, and the Dominican Republic recorded FTTH/B growth rate of more than 10%. In Belgium, Proximus are promoting full fibre services to get a return on their investment in the wide-scale FTTH deployment. Multiple altnets are attempting to increase fibre adoption rates both in the UK and in Italy. In the former, BT is also promoting migration to its EE brand, including for full fibre. Ireland is a dynamic FTTH market as well, with three major operators and some smaller providers offering the service.
Table 5. Top 10 markets by FTTH/B growth rates (countries with at least 0.5m fibre broadband subscribers). Source: Point Topic.
Country | FTTH/B subscriber growth, Q1 2024 |
Algeria | 18.0% |
Belgium | 14.2% |
Dominican Republic | 11.4% |
Peru | 9.5% |
Morocco | 8.8% |
Pakistan | 8.5% |
Colombia | 7.9% |
United Kingdom | 7.2% |
Ireland | 6.7% |
Italy | 6.7% |
In terms of FTTH/B broadband net additions in Q4 2023, China continued to maintain a significant lead with 10.4 million, while India added almost two million. See our complete dataset for full details.
Between Q1 2023 and Q1 2024, broadband technologies diverged further. The number of copper lines saw another decline (-13.9%), while FTTH/B connections grew by 9.3%, as the availability of full fibre networks increased further. In the face of competition from fibre, FWA and 5G, cable broadband subscribers also declined by 1.2%, while FTTx dropped by 2.5% (Figure 5). We recorded a 1% drop y-o-y in the satellite broadband connections. However, we should note that these figures do not yet include Starlink, which will be added next quarter.
Wireless broadband (mainly FWA / 5G and LTE fixed) connections continued to grow – they went up by 8.1%, not least due to healthy growth rates in the US, Italy and Algeria. We expect this trend to persist due to demand for connectivity in remote and underserved areas where wired broadband infrastructure is not economically or logistically feasible, and due to some consumers cord-cutting their broadband access services.
Overall, our data continues to indicate a steady consumer shift towards more reliable, symmetric bandwidth offered by ultra-fast broadband technologies such as FTTH/B. High speed fixed wireless is also seeing growth in take-up. Meanwhile, traditional technologies like copper and cable-based broadband are experiencing a decline. This trend persists as providers strive to meet the growing demand for faster and more dependable broadband services and to increase the value of their networks.
[1] It is possible there will be restatements in the coming quarter/s and single period data should be viewed in that light. Decline in some markets can be due to changes in methodology used by national regulatory authorities.
[2] Although we use them in our reports, we cannot vouch for the country’s officially reported broadband subscriber figures which suggest household penetration well over 100%.
[3] This excludes Starlink. We will be adding Starlink satellite broadband figures from the next quarter.
[4] Some of our FTTx subscriber figures include both FTTB/FTTH and VDSL, as it is not always possible to identify the technology split in some operators’ figures reported as ‘fibre’.
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