Global fixed broadband subscribers will grow by 18% to reach 1.6 billion by 2030

We have updated our forecasts of fixed broadband take-up for 96 markets to the end of 2030. The forecasts are based on our quarterly broadband take-up data up to Q2 2022 and include both residential and business connections.

We forecast that by the end of 2030 there will be more than 1.595 billion fixed broadband subscribers across the globe. This is a slight increase from 1.55 billion we predicted in our forecast published in October 2021. Between mid-2022 and end-2030, global fixed broadband subscribers will grow by 18%.

Figure 1. Forecast of total global fixed broadband subscriber lines to 2030. Source: Point Topic.

The highest growth in fixed broadband subscribers (45.5%) will come from the Emerging markets, where broadband services were introduced earlier than in the Youthful markets but there is still plenty of room to increase take-up. A number of countries in the Emerging category have been expanding fixed broadband infrastructure, especially focusing on fibre. The demand for ultrafast broadband has been increasing at healthy rates in these generally large and growing populations and economies[1], with Indonesia and Philippines just a couple of examples. Youthful countries will see the second highest growth at 16%. Here fixed broadband take-up has already grown at high speed and so they will see growth rates slow down. To date, the growth curve of Youthful markets has been the steepest, with the likes of China having invested heavily in their broadband infrastructure over the last decade[2].

Table 1 . Predicted growth in fixed broadband subscribers by market type. Source: Point Topic.

The growth in mature countries will be the slowest (8%) and flatline as fixed broadband penetration there is already high and population growth is slowing down.

Figure 2. Forecast of global fixed broadband subscriber lines to 2030 by market type. Source: Point Topic.

At the regional level, the advanced, mature economies of Western Europe and North America will see the slowest growth, at 7% and 9% respectively. On the other hand, fixed broadband take-up in the Middle East & Africa and in Latin America will grow at significant rates (53% and 33% respectively).

Table 2. Predicted growth in fixed broadband subscribers by region. Source: Point Topic.

In terms of the absolute figures, South and East Asia will continue to have by far the highest number of fixed broadband subscribers by the end of 2030, at 730 million. China will remain the largest market in the region, although the growth there will slow down significantly, given already high household penetration.

Among the global regions, Western Europe will follow in the remote second place with 180 million fixed broadband subscribers forecast by 2030. Despite the highest predicted growth, Middle East and Africa will remain the smallest fixed broadband market with 80 million subscribers.

Figure 3. Forecast of global fixed broadband subscriber lines to 2030 by region. Source: Point Topic.

Compared to the previous forecast, our current forecast of global fixed broadband take-up figures by end-2030 is 2.7% higher. This reflects higher than we previously expected growth in broadband take-up and addressable audiences in a number of countries. The higher forecast growth in such markets as Saudi Arabia (+36%), Qatar (+34%), and Malaysia (+16%), among others, has boosted our global fixed broadband subscriber forecast for this decade. These are emerging or youthful countries with relatively low market saturation, where there is still plenty of scope for expanding fixed broadband coverage and take-up. Markets of these types also dominate the fastest growth league table.

Table 3. Fastest growing broadband markets. Source: Point Topic.

At the same time, we predict a modest growth between 2022 and 2030 in China (4.6%), given that the country’s fixed broadband market is already highly saturated - it has reached the half billion subscriber milestone in Q2 2021. Moreover, 5G subscribers there are also approaching a billion (see the caveat in footnote 2). In the second largest fixed broadband market of the US (a mature market), we forecast a 9.4% growth between now and 2030.

Other lowest forecast growth countries are a mixture of markets with high fixed broadband penetration such as France, Hong Kong and Malta, and those where socio-economic conditions are less favourable for broadband investment and adoption despite low penetration, e.g. Venezuela.

Table 4. Lowest growth broadband markets. Source: Point Topic.

The overall picture suggests that countries located in the Global South will generally see higher growth in fixed broadband take-up by the end of the decade.

Figure 4. Growth forecast by country (% growth 2022-2030). Source: Point Topic.

Similarly, mainly countries from the Global South will see the largest improvements in fixed broadband penetration among population, with UAE at the top with +16%.

Figure 5. Top ten countries by predicted improvement in fixed broadband penetration among population, 2022 – 2030. Source: Point Topic.

The complete dataset of the fixed broadband take-up forecast to 2030 by country and region is available to subscribers of our Global Broadband Statistics service.

[1] We have divided countries into "Emerging", "Youthful" and "Mature" markets, depending on the amount of time since the technology was introduced. The list is available in the full dataset spreadsheet. [2] Given the latest news about China possibly over-reporting their population figures, we cannot vouch for the country’s officially reported current broadband subscriber figures used in our forecast. [3] We used the United Nations population figures (https://population.un.org/)